In 2008, Indian telecom continued to grow unmindful of any global economic meltdown or financial crisis. The sector, in fact, broke all its previous records and added a robust 114 million cellular subscribers between January and December 2008. In stark contrast the Indian broadband sector continued to be filled with alternating moods of despair and hope as the government announced and postponed spectrum auctions with remarkable deftness. The top issue on every service providers’ agenda was to shore up more 2G voice subscribers.

Meanwhile, operators such as Reliance and Tata Communications who chose to roll out extensively in 3.3GHz in multiple locations have shown what could be done with innovation and radio optimization, combined with passive infrastructure sharing and aggressive marketing in a market where latent demand stifled expansion and traditional wire-line data was just not delivering. The entire 3.3GHz experience reaffirmed that the fundamental business case for fixed wireless in India is real and immediate.

In a new research report on the Indian BWA / WiMAX market opportunity, 3rd edition, which is due to launch in time for the WIMAX ASIA Congress starting in Singapore April 28th, Maravedis Indian research partner Tonse Telecom provides some interesting updates.

Incumbents BSNL and the government of India, with its many key initiatives to initiate e-health and e-commerce activities, will play a lead role in unleashing wireless broadband in the country. The pre-allocation of 2.5GHz bands for incumbent operators BSNL / MTNL is going to help with a clear lead time to plan and roll basic networks first and then add enhanced value-added services later.

The past year has brought about 200,000 BWA/WiMAX subscribers to the fore. Tonse estimates that by 2013, the combined BWA/WiMAX subscriber base will grow to about 14.16 million, out of which about 13.4 million will be WiMAX subscribers.

From the government’s side, we notice that multiple initiatives have already been taken up to ensure that the digital divide is either eliminated or at least reduced in the short term. The Common Service Centers (CSC) initiative jointly taken up by the Department of IT and the Department of Telecommunications is a great way to kick start the Internet in rural communities with e-banking/e-governance, health, education and social services around a village entrepreneur via broadband connectivity, the bulk of which will be wireless.

• The hottest application in India is still Internet access. Data services are still not meeting basic user needs with large sections of DSL users complaining of sporadic performance and marked unpredictability of data over copper lines.
• Small and Medium Enterprises (SME) and SOHO/home users continue to remain underserved but promise the highest levels of growth rates in terms of bandwidth consumed. We believe there is ample room for growth in this sector and WiMAX is a natural ally to meet this demand.

Lead operators such as Reliance have a crystal clear idea to opt for 3G as well as WiMAX and deploy best-fit applications to best-fit market segments. As a cross-over operator with an established CDMA base and now building a pan-India GSM network, the synergies in bringing in BWA/WiMAX over existing pockets of 3.3GHz, encapsulated with a dense tower base, interconnected with high quality fiber/Metro-Ethernet rings are simply too compelling. As a result we believe the battle for BWA/WiMAX spectrum will be intense across all circles.

Policy makers should focus on affordable, rapid connectivity using low-cost devices and technologies that will help take the Internet to the Indian masses quickly. Low cost mobile Internet devices, NetPCs and other similar technologies will help break the barrier and create a new level of broadband consumption in India hitherto unimagined.

About the report:

India Broadband Wireless & WiMAX Market Analysis & Forecasts, 2008 – 2014 - 3rd Edition will be released on April 28th, 2009 and available for purchase at www.maravedis-bwa.com