This week we are publishing our latest forecasts for BWA and WiMAX in our new report entitled "WiMAX and Broadband Wireless Access Equipment Market Analysis, Trends and Forecasts, 2009-2014." Maravedis has always maintained that we do not see WiMAX becoming a "3G killer" in the near future; this remains true in light of the recent technical and commercial wins by LTE.
The fundamental question about WiMAX is this: can it ramp up to volumes that enable it to compete in a wireless world ruled by huge volumes of cellular phone sales? WiMAX and future wireless networks that aspire to offer 4G services will attempt to become unified communications systems that fit diverse markets and have very different sets of customers and requirements. The common architecture is supposed to result in an overall advance in technology and a reduction in costs – the so-called “virtuous circle” enabled by a large ecosystem. Maravedis forecasts an accumulated 75 million WiMAX subscribers by the end of 2014. Our forecasts have been revised to reflect the economic slowdown and the progress made by the LTE camp.
On the technology side, the new report confirms that both WiMAX and LTE are converging upon 4G service capabilities. LTE’s primary market – 3G operators – will be unlikely to deploy LTE until 2012. While LTE appears to have the decisive volume advantage, the lag between 3G evolution and the next generation mobile network will greatly benefit WiMAX.
SELECT KEY FINDINGS
- Over 3 million CPE units were shipped in 2008 compared to 2.2 million in 2007
- Korean and Taiwanese ODMs accounted for 60% of CPEs shipped in 2008
- The 802.16e-2005 share of new WiMAX subscribers will peak in 2012 and be dominated by mobile devices with embedded wireless modems
- Alcatel-Lucent, Alvarion, Motorola and Samsung were the leaders in BWA and WiMAX combined equipment markets,
- The WiMAX equipment market, which includes active WiMAX subscribers, will reach an annual US$4 billion in 2014, from over US$2billion at the end of 2008
- Proprietary and fixed WiMAX equipment will continue to grow organically to meet the needs of WISPs and vertical segments
- Service revenues generated by broadband wireless services will reach $15 billion in 2014
Enjoy!
Adlane Fellah
Maravedis CEO & Founder
For more information, contact the author at afellah@maravedis-bwa.com
Copyright © 2009 by Maravedis Inc. All Rights Reserved.
No reproduction without consent.
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