WiMAX Needs More Sprints! Or BSNLs?

ARTICLE

WiMAX Needs More Sprints! Or BSNLs?

By Adlane Fellah, CEO and founder
Contact the author at afellah@maravedis-bwa.com

Lately, there has not been much good news for WiMAX coming from the market. Despite the fact that there are more than 250 trials and deployments worldwide, WiMAX needs the commitment and the heavy CAPEX spending of large operators deploying large networks. In fact, does it really matter how many deployments there are in total? Is it really a measure of success? Yes and No.

If deployments are limited to small carriers serving a niche market and with no deep pockets, then the overall volumes will remain low with the consequences we can all understand on cost, synergies and the evolution of the ecosystem. However, having a great number of deployments reduces the risk of the technology becoming a major flop and the minimum take up rate to meet the return on investment on the overall R&D expenses devoted to the technology. According to our WiMAXcounts tracking service (www.wimaxcounts.com), the average number of WiMAX and proprietary subscribers is less than 10,000 per carrier. Needless to say its low by all technology measures.

While it is becoming clear that Sprint's initial WiMAX pledge will not materialize in the way it was initially portrayed, WiMAX needs more Sprint-like supporters. Which are large, universal or mobile carriers with deep pockets and who can remove the perception that WiMAX is destined as a niche fixed and portable technology.

How many Sprints are needed?

At least one per continent. BSNL and VSNL in India may compensate for Sprint's delayed (and more modest) roadmap in the medium term although there are still uncertainties as to how large these deployment swills really will be. Korea, Japan, Russia, Taiwan and other countries may have the potential to become WiMAX hubs for a combination of motives that range from political to global technology positioning. What is likely is the continued growth of demand for wireless access solutions in most developing and rural regions worldwide contributing to a linear but solid demand for both WiMAX and proprietary solutions.

Contrary to what some analysts say, 2008 is not a make or break year for WiMAX. WiMAX fundamentals remain strong as a technology supported by a large ecosystem and a pent-up demand for broadband wireless solutions. What is at stake here is whether LTE or WIMAX will get the lion's share of a multi-billion dollar business that will not be served by a single technology. Interestingly, WiMAX is contributing to the creation of that new demand. It needs to put all its weight to convince a group of healthy and strong universal and mobile carriers in strategic countries than putting its faith on one single troubled one.

For more information you can contact the author. afellah@maravedis-bwa.com